A guided journey
You're about five years out
Your pot is the largest it will ever be and you're about to start drawing on it. Almost everything that helps in this window is decided in advance, calmly, and most of it is decided once. Here is what, and in what order.
Before you start
Gather the six figures in the numbers you'll need — what you have, what you spend, what income arrives regardless of markets, the mortgage, your planning age, and how bad a year you could sit through. Everything below runs off them, and the second one matters more than all the others combined.
If you have not read how to read the results, do that first. Ten minutes, and it stops you misreading everything that follows.
Calculator 15 · Will your money outlive you?
Get the baseline, and get it honestly
Everything else is measured against this. It runs a survival curve alongside a portfolio simulation and tells you the odds of one outlasting the other.
Run it once with your real figures. Resist the urge to enter what you hope to spend rather than what you spend.
What to look at
- Your safe withdrawal rate, and next to it you're currently drawing. The gap between those two is the entire finding.
- Portfolio lasts to against 1 in 10 chance of reaching. If the first is lower than the second, you have a problem worth four more years of attention.
- Guaranteed income covers — the share of your spending that arrives whatever markets do. The higher this is, the less everything else matters.
- The closing the gap card if the answer came out uncomfortable. It is more useful than despair and more accurate than panic.
Calculator 10 · Spending ramp
The spending figure you just used was probably wrong
Step 1 assumed you spend the same amount, adjusted for inflation, every year for thirty years. Nobody does that.
Real retirement spending has a shape: higher in the first decade while you are well enough to travel and have suddenly acquired the time to spend money in, lower through the middle, and then potentially much higher at the very end if care is needed. Planning against a flat line gets the total roughly right and the timing badly wrong — and the timing is what determines whether you can afford the good decade.
What to look at
- Ramped first-year budget against if spending stayed flat. Most people find the shaped version lets them spend meaningfully more early on.
- Total lifetime spending, which is often similar either way — the money moves, it doesn't multiply.
- The overspending risk card, which is the honest counterweight to the permission the rest of the page gives you.
- The care costs in the final years input. Leaving it at zero is a choice, not a default.
Take the ramped first-year figure back to step 1 and re-run it. This is the single most common reason a plan looks worse on paper than it is.
Open calculator 10 →Calculator 01 · Sequence-of-returns risk
Understand the window you are about to enter
This step produces no action. It changes how you think, which is why it comes before the steps that do.
Take one set of yearly returns and reorder it. The average is identical. If you are drawing an income, the order alone can decide whether the money lasts. Tick the "take no withdrawals" box and all three lines finish on exactly the same number, to the dollar — untick it and they diverge wildly. That contrast is the whole idea, and it is worth ten minutes because it explains why the next two steps matter.
What to look at
- The cost of a bad start headline — the gap between the best and worst ordering of identical returns. It is pure timing luck and you have no control over it.
- The crash timing chart. The same fall in year one versus year twenty produces completely different outcomes.
- The recovery table. A 50% loss needs a 100% gain to undo — and while you are withdrawing, sometimes it never comes back at all.
- Change the return sequence number a few times. The headline figure moves; the pattern doesn't. The pattern is the finding.
Calculator 17 · Catastrophic loss avoidance
Build the buffer — the most useful thing on this list
This is the practical answer to step 3, and it is the highest-value action in these five years.
You cannot control whether a downturn arrives. You can control whether it forces you to sell. Holding two or three years of spending in cash and short bonds is not a good investment — it is deliberately a bad one — but it means a terrible first year is something you read about rather than something you pay for permanently.
What to look at
- Buffer you hold against buffer required. If you are short, you now have five years to close it, which is comfortable.
- Drawn from safe assets, year 1 — smaller than people expect, because dividends, interest and guaranteed income cover part of the gap.
- If you trimmed spending: modest flexibility cuts the buffer you need substantially. Flexibility and cash are partial substitutes.
- The what forced selling would cost card, which is what you are buying insurance against.
How to build it without bad timing. Do not sell a third of your portfolio to cash tomorrow. Redirect new contributions, dividends and interest into the buffer over the remaining years, and let it fill up gradually. You have time; use it rather than making one large bet on today's price.
Open calculator 17 →Calculators 09 and 04 · Risk capacity and allocation
De-risk deliberately, not by instinct
Two calculators, in this order, because they answer different halves of one question.
Calculator 09 asks what your plan can survive — the largest fall it can absorb while still funding your essentials — and compares that with what you are actually exposed to. Calculator 04 then builds a mix from your age, longevity, income needs and temperament, and stress-tests it.
The order matters. Capacity is arithmetic; temperament is you. Where the two disagree, the smaller one governs — a plan you abandon in the third bad month is worse than a more cautious plan you actually keep.
What to look at
- On 09: capacity (essentials only) against capacity (no change at all). The distance between them is what your willingness to adapt is worth.
- On 09: equity you can support, against what you currently hold.
- On 04: the stress test against real crashes, not the headline percentages. Percentages are abstract; "this is what 2008 would have done to you" is not.
- On 04: essentials at risk. If your non-negotiable spending is exposed to markets, that is the thing to fix.
Calculator 03 · Pension deferral
Decide the claiming question before you're under pressure
Claim your state pension as soon as you can, or wait for a larger one? It is one of the few genuinely irreversible decisions in retirement, and it is much better made now, on a quiet afternoon, than in the month you stop working.
How this page applies depends heavily on where you live — the UK cannot claim early at all, Australia has no deferral bonus, Canada needs a second run for OAS. Your country's page explains which version of the question you're actually facing.
What to look at
- The break-even age, then ask honestly whether you expect to pass it. Most healthy 65-year-olds do, and most people underestimate this.
- Highest lifetime value across every claiming age, rather than just the two you were considering.
- The what deferring does to your portfolio card — deferring means funding the bridge years from savings, which is real and often the deciding factor.
- Deferring is one of the very few ways to buy more guaranteed, inflation-linked, lifelong income. Compare its rate against what an annuity would cost you for the same thing.
Calculators 08 and 16 · The unglamorous two
The paperwork and the clutter
Neither is exciting. Both are easier now than they will ever be again.
Calculator 08 scores the whole estate checklist rather than just asking whether you have a will. Most people have a will and assume the job is done; it usually isn't. Look at where the score loses points rather than at the score.
Calculator 16 asks whether you could explain what you own in two sentences. If you couldn't, someone else may have to one day, in a hurry, without your help. It also totals what the extra layers cost you each year — which is frequently the largest number on the page and the only certain one in your whole plan.
What to look at
- On 08: the what's missing and do these first cards. Ignore the headline number.
- On 16: difference each year and the cumulative figure over your remaining horizon.
- On 16: share you could explain in two sentences. Be honest; this is the input people flatter themselves on.
Consolidating accounts, closing dormant pots and writing down where everything is takes a weekend and removes a burden from people who will be in no state to work it out.
Open calculator 08 →If you only have twelve months
Compressed, in priority order.
- Build the buffer (step 4). Everything else is optimisation; this is protection.
- Get your spending figure right (step 2). A 20% error here swamps every other assumption you'll make.
- Check your capacity against your exposure (step 5) and close the gap gradually, not in one trade.
- Get your state pension forecast and settle the claiming decision (step 6).
Steps 3 and 7 can wait until you've stopped. Steps 1, 2 and 4 cannot.
What to do with all this
Write it down. One page: your six numbers, your withdrawal rule, your target buffer, your allocation, your claiming age, and the date you'll review it. The value of a written plan is not the plan — it is that in a bad month you can read what you decided when you were calm, and find that you had already thought about this.
Then re-run the whole sequence once a year. It takes an hour, and it is how you notice a drift early enough to correct it cheaply.
When you do stop, the first two years picks up from here.
The other guides
Each one walks a sequence of calculators rather than leaving you to pick.
Should I clear the mortgage?
The one question that needs eight calculators, worked through in the order the argument actually runs.
The first two years
The first two years: buffer, rule, allocation, and what to do if year one is bad.
What actually goes wrong
The five ways retirements fail, and the early warning sign for each.
General information only — not financial, tax, legal or investment advice, and not a recommendation to do anything in particular. This is a reasonable order to think in, not a plan for your circumstances. Every result on this site follows from assumptions you enter yourself; change an assumption and the answer changes. These tools contain no tax rules, government pension rules or means-testing logic — take local advice for all of that.